“President Von der Leyen considers positive all initiatives that contribute to a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. “If the meeting serves that purpose, we would welcome it.”
This phrase full of ambiguity and twists and turns is the official reaction of the European Commission to the announcement by Donald Trump of a new meeting in person with Vladimir Putinwhich will be held in a couple of weeks in Budapest.
The erratic politics of the president of the United States regarding the war in Ukraine does not stop disconcerting European allies. When Brussels assumed that it was going to tighten the screws on the KremlinTrump goes off the hook announcing a “very productive” conversation with the Russian president. And a meeting precisely in the Hungarian capital.
“Budapest is, in essence, the only place in Europe where a meeting of this type could be held today, mainly because Hungary is almost the only country favorable to peace,” declared this Friday Viktor Orbán, whom more and more leaders consider Russia’s ‘Trojan horse’ in the EU.
The Hungarian Prime Minister makes it clear that he will not execute the arrest warrant issued against Putin by the International Criminal Court. In April, Orbán already received his Israeli counterpart with honors in Budapest Benjamin Netanyahuanother international leader wanted by the Hague court for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.
Hungary approved last spring leave the International Criminal Court against the political line defended by Brussels, which considers this body as an essential piece of an international order based on rules, and not on the law of the strongest.
“The withdrawal only takes effect one year after notification by the signatory, in this case Hungary. And let us be clear: this does not affect the duty of cooperation of States in relation to investigations and procedures initiated before that date,” said the Foreign Affairs spokesperson of the Community Executive, Anouar El Anouni.
“If Putin lands in Budapest, the consequence should be his arrest. If Hungary does not do so, it would not be constructive. But no one will be surprised. It is not the first time that Hungary violates its obligations. Still, it is problematic,” explains a European diplomat.
The sanctions that the EU has approved against Russia will not serve to stop Putin either. Although he has been on the ‘blacklist’ since 2022, the Russian president is not subject to the prohibition of entry into community territory, but only the freezing of assets.
Although Russian planes are prohibited from flying over the EU, Member States that wish to do so can apply derogations, the Commission explains. “In any case, I’m glad I don’t have to deal with your flight plans.“, ironically the diplomat.
If the meeting between Putin and Trump in Budapest is confirmed, Europeans assume that the US will pressure them to allow and facilitate the Russian president’s trip.
Despite Trump’s new turn, the EU believes that all is not lost. “We have spent a lot of political capital to explain how we see the conflict. The distinction between aggressor and attacked. The need for Ukraine to be at the negotiating table. And if we talk about security in Europe, the EU also has to have a seat,” says another diplomat.
“President Trump will have taken note of what happened the last time he approached Putin: Putin seriously betrayed him. Since the Alaska meeting we have seen a strong escalation against Ukraine, so I don’t think Trump will allow that to happen again,” alleges the second diplomat.
Von der Leyen herself, to whom the Republican did not even pick up the phone for months, now maintains more or less frequent and fluid contacts with him about Ukraine. “In recent weeks and months there has been greater receptiveness in the United States toward our positions on this issue.”
“What is clear is that Europe will continue to support Ukraine. There is no possible deal without Ukraine and Europe’s security will be decided between Europeans, not between Putin and Trump,” insists the first diplomat.