One of the first decisions that, according to her fellow members, the communist candidate was about to make. Jeannette Jara (Santiago de Chile, 51 years old) after winning, against all odds, the primaries of the Unity pact for Chile was, paradoxically, abandoning the militancy of the Communist Party. Because? Because Jara, the leader first explained Daniel Jadueis part of “a broader alliance.” Because Jara, his advisor later added Marcos Bazarrarepresents “a developing coalition that is plural in composition.”
The decision, according to the party president, Lautaro Carmonathe history of the formation, with Marxist-Leninist roots, was unprecedented. Jara’s decision, some voices anticipated, reflected his desire to break.
Nothing could be further from the truth. The president’s former Minister of Labor Gabriel Boric He came out against the leaks to reaffirm his commitment to the acronym. The option of renouncing her communist militancy, which began in her adolescence, “is not on the table,” she herself explained on the 113th anniversary of the formation.
Even less so when there are less than five months left for decisive presidential elections in which, he insisted, Chile faces “an extreme right that denies the rights of women, of diversities, of workers, of indigenous peoples.”
Jara headed to the Palacio de La Moneda after winning last Sunday in the internal party of the Unity for Chile pact with 60% of the votes. More than double that Carolina Toháhis immediate pursuer. The daughter of the historic minister of Salvador Allende and former head of Boric’s Interior portfolio represented the social democratic sector of the coalition, while the third candidate in contention, the deputy Gonzalo Wintera personal friend of the president, presented himself as the continuing line with Boric’s legacy. Only Jara convinced the bases.
The result of the primaries soon took on historical overtones. Since the return of democracy in 1990, the Communist Party had never managed to place its own candidate in the race for La Moneda with the full support of the progressive bloc. The communists were in the opposition during the Concertación, the center-left coalition that governed Chile between 1990 and 2010. And that, in 2014, returned to La Moneda at the hands of Michelle Bachelet. Not anymore.
The percentage of participation in the primaries did not, however, exceed one and a half million votes. About 9% of the total census. A little or no representative percentage. “The electoral roll in Chile is approximately 15 million people. Assuming that 13 and a half million are going to vote, Jara would have to be getting more than 6 and a half million votes. And last weekend he got 800,000 or so,” the Chilean political scientist explains in dialogue with this newspaper. Christopher A. Martínez.
“Even if we consider that all the votes in the primary had gone to his candidacy, he would have accumulated a total of 1,400,000. Still very far from the number of votes he would need to get to secure the second round,” he summarizes.
There are many who, despite her communist roots, see Jara as Bachelet’s natural successor. Jara herself wants to incorporate the former president into her electoral campaign to give a patina of moderation that hides her position on Cuba—an island that, she said in the middle of the electoral debate, lives in a “democratic system different from ours.” Regarding Venezuela, however, Jara did not show so many reservations when he said that there “there is no democracy.”
From the center to the extreme right, the reactions to his victory in the primaries were mostly hostile or skeptical, with some exceptions such as that of the deputy Eric Aedoof the Christian Democracy, who showed their support for the candidate because they consider that “she is open to the common good, she is not closed to her ideas. She was able to bring about a provisional reform that was stuck for 12 years. Is it so difficult to recognize a woman’s leadership?”
The right will present three strong candidates in the presidential elections next November. Three candidates, curiously, of Germanic origins. The economist Evelyn Mattheifrom the traditional right grouped in the Chile Vamos alliance, José Antonio Kastof the ultranationalist Republican Party, and Johannes Kaiserfrom the far-right Libertarian Party. The last two have not distanced themselves from Pinochetism.
The deadline for submitting applications ends on August 18. A new candidate may still appear to try to fill the social democratic space that occupies Tohá’s void. A Tohá who, although in the primary campaign, called Jara a “Kirchnerist”, promised to contribute to the unity of the bloc.
According to the pollster Pulso Ciudadano, Jara leads the voting intention polls with 31.4%. Behind them are the names of Kast, with 18% and Matthei, with 17.4%.
“There are practically five months left until the election, which in politics is an eternity. So no result can be ruled out. That said, when it comes to thinking about more structural patterns, Jara faces three very high barriers to being able to win the presidential election,” says the Chilean political scientist. Jorge Fabrega in conversation with EL ESPAÑOL.
What are those barriers? “In order from least difficult to most difficult to overcome, they are: first, being a member of the Communist Party places her in a political niche that in Chile generates many antibodies not only in the natural adversaries towards the center and the political right, but also in sectors of the left itself.”
“Surely she and her strategic team will address this problem quickly by minimizing, hiding, trying to clear all references to communism in their messages and speeches and that will make it easier for their speech to penetrate the less politicized population,” he anticipates. “But, naturally, his adversaries will bring the issue back again and again. So, for now, it is a question whether or not he can clear that issue; if he does, that will undoubtedly allow him to make progress in accessions.”
“The second barrier is somewhat more difficult to overcome and consists of starting from a low voting floor,” adds Fabrega, in line with Martínez. “Approximately 9% of the voters voted. That vote is the hard core of the ruling party and if they want to be in the second round they will need to more than double the number of adhesions. Something possible, but very uphill.”
Because? “Particularly uphill for the third reason: she was part of a Government that all surveys by different companies that systematically conduct opinion polls show that it generated rejection or disapproval around 70% of the population. Being a representative of the ruling party is practically a guarantee of losing. Thus, even if it goes to the second round, it has 30 to 40% of the votes, but that remaining 10% simply seems unattainable.”
“So, can he win? Yes, of course. But things have to happen,” Fabrega summarizes. But what things? “For example, continuous mistakes by adversaries or scandals that affect them or something like that because for Jara, just doing a perfect political marketing strategy is not enough to reach the 50% plus one that he requires to reach La Moneda.”
Will the Boric Government suffer the wear and tear? “Most likely, how can one get rid of the ‘officialism’ brand, having been a minister involved in the few successes that the Government claims (pension reform, 40-hour law, among others)? It doesn’t seem very easy, at least,” responds Fabrega. “But like everything in politics, if due to one of those situations that are difficult to understand, the population sees her as if she were not part of the ruling party, then she could free herself from that weight. The only certain thing, for now, is that we should see few photos with the president in the parliamentary campaigns of the ruling party and, without a doubt, of the candidate Jara.”
“Jara is a much less polarizing figure than his party,” he acknowledges. “And that is his great virtue and the fear he generates in his adversaries.”