DONALD Trump’s order to restart nuclear weapons tests after 30 years has sparked fears of a return to the worst days of the Cold War – and a “perilous” new era.
In The Sun’s episode of Battle Plans Exposeddefence expert Philip Ingram MBE explores the rise of the shadowy nuclear arms tussle between global superpowers – and reveals why one player poses the biggest threat to the West.
On Air Force One, returning from Korea, Trump revealed he made the call because of the other countries conducting nuclear tests.
Watch the latest episode on The Sun’s YouTube channel here…
Russia, China and the US are the three nations with the largest appetites for international dominance – and the largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons.
Putin has been testing new nuclear-capable weapons, China is tipping the scales by building up its arsenal, and the US must ensure its own deterrent can stand up to them both.
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As a result, the “spectre of nuclear conflict” has once again returned, Ingram says.
He adds: “The nuclear threat is no longer a Cold War relic. It is a terrifying, active component of 21st century warfare.”
Putin’s new nuclear statecraft
Vladimir Putin‘s Russia tops the pile as the country with the biggest stocks of these Armageddon weapons.
The ex-Soviet mothership sits on a terrifying arsenal of over 5,500 nuclear warheads.
This, Ingram says, is “not a relic, but a central tool of its statecraft”.
“Around 1,700 of those are strategic weapons deployed and ready to launch from land-based silos, from submarines that are operating in the oceans and from long range bombers patrolling the skies.
“This colossal force is Russia’s insurance policy, the legacy of a superpower and the bedrock of its current military strategy.
“It’s the reason Putin can act with impunity on the world stage.”
Vlad set alarm bells ringing over the past week as he announced aggressive tests of two nuclear-capable weapons within days of each other – the Burevestnik missile and Poseidon torpedo.
While the Kremlin claims not to have tested actual nuclear warheads, this sabre-rattling from Putin undoubtedly had a major part in pushing Trump to act.
Nuclear weapons instil a fear like no other – and the mere threat of their deployment is a card to play.
Ingram says: “It is a strategic effect. It has an end of world effect.”
Russia, having come through the nuclear arms race of the Cold War and maintained its stockpile, wields that threat more than anyone else.
And the country over which it currently hangs is, of course, Ukraine.
Ingram says: “This is the history and the machinery that hangs over the Ukraine conflict.”
If Putin were to pull the trigger, he could be fairly sure of securing the immediate destruction of Ukraine.
But he knows that would inflict colossal “political damage” which would harm Russia in the long run.
Having come up against the reality that he cannot defeat Ukraine’s armyPutin is settling for trying to “destroy Ukraine’s capacity to function as a state”, and absorbing control that way.
China – throwing off the balance
But away from the battlefields of eastern Ukraine, another dynamic has emerged on the nuclear stage, which Ingram says is the “most consequential” for the West: China.
He says: “As Ukraine hammers Russia’s critical energy market that funds Putin’s war, Russia has turned to China for financial help.
“But the real geopolitical shift is happening in the silos and the shipyards.
“China has embarked on the most rapid, opaque nuclear arsenal build up in history. This isn’t just a numbers game. It’s a new strategic goal.”
While China’s nuclear arsenal is still only a fraction of Russia and America, its programme has grown more rapidly than any other in history – throwing off the balance of world peace.
Ingram says: “China is on track to have over 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.
“President Xi Jinping is building a comprehensive nuclear triad – land, sea and air – that can hold the US mainland and all of American bases in the Asia Pacific, including Guam, within its range.”
As Putin aligns closer to China, its own superpower status is being visibly reduced both economically and militarily. China is a rising strategic power and Russia the fearing, unpredictable partner
Philip Ingram
Xi’s secret rocket force is test launching more ballistic missiles than any other country.
The crucible that reveals the full significance of China’s nuclear weapons drive is Taiwan.
Ingram explains: “This arsenal is intended to act as a nuclear shield, a high end deterrent to prevent the US from intervening in a contingency over the island.
“It forces the US to divert resources to contain two nuclear powers simultaneously. It is a true long game shift in global power.
“Simultaneously, the US under President Trump is waging an economic war in China, eroding its power with tariffs and targeting the heart of China’s strength, global trade.
“And look at the consequences for Moscow.
“As Putin aligns closer to China, its own superpower status is being visibly reduced both economically and militarily. China is a rising strategic power and Russia the fearing, unpredictable partner.”
China’s nuclear arsenal
CHINA’S nuclear arsenal is growing more rapidly than any other on the planet.
The exact size of its arsenal varies according to different estimations – partly due to the fact it is expanding so rapidly.
Most analysis puts their stockpile of nuclear warheads at around 500 – with upper estimates claiming it has topped 600.
These weapons can be deployed from missiles, submarines, and aircraft.
It holds land-based and sea-based strategic missiles in the low hundreds.
China also boasts nuclear gravity bombs, which are simply dropped out of planes, and possibly guided cruise missiles which are deployed on-the-wing.
China shows no sign of putting the breaks on its nuclear expansion, so its arsenal is likely to only increase.
In 2024, the Chinese Communist Party spent an estimated $12.5billion on its nuclear force.
Three-way standoff
The world is now in a three-way standoff – and China’s “pursuit of nuclear strength is fundamentally altering the strategic balance that has kept the peace for decades”, Ingram warns.
“We’re now in a three-way standoff, and the balance of terror has never been so complicated,” he says.
The three powers locking horns each rely on a strategy known as the “nuclear triad” – meaning their arsenals launch from three distinct platforms.
Namely – manned bomber planes, land-based missile launch pads and submarines.
The submarines have the greatest destabilising effect, because their movement around the globe compounds the threat.
America, Russia, the UK, France and China all keep nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed submarines at sea continuously.
Ingram says: “Operating in all of the oceans and seas around the world, the frightening thing about the hidden nuclear submarines is nobody knows where they are.
“They could be only a few hundred or 1,000km off the US coast, or our submarines could be just off the Russian coast.”
Nuclear programmes occupy a good deal of intelligence services’ attention – which is key to understanding where the greatest threat lies.
Ingram says: “Western intelligence has seen no change in the status of Russian nuclear forces, no matter when or what Putin or his henchmen have said.
“The threats are a tool of intimidation, part of the information war. The sheer terror of these weapons forced the world’s superpowers to the negotiating table.”
What next?
In the wake of the Cold War, agreements were brought in to limit the development of nuclear arms.
The most recent of these, New START, signed in 2010, binds the US and Russia to limiting themselves to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads each.
Now, however, with Russia embroiled in war, the extension of this agreement looks in jeopardy – and it’s about to expire.
Ingram says: “The world is facing the terrifying prospect of an era with no limits on the deadliest weapons ever created.
“The world came perilously close to that reality during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 and the 13-day standoff that pushed humanity to the very brink of extinction.
“But the brink was reached again in a less well known but equally terrifying crisis in 1983, when tensions were at fever pitch.
“Today, that Cold War echo is back louder and more dangerous. Russia’s current nuclear posture is one of calculated ambiguity.”
Russia’s nuclear threats have reshaped the landscape of global security. The treaties that once provided a buffer are frayed and gone
Philip Ingram
Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has gone to great lengths to remind the world of their nuclear might.
Ingram concludes: “Russia is sending a clear message, and it’s not ‘sorry’.
“Russia’s nuclear threats have reshaped the landscape of global security. The treaties that once provided a buffer are frayed and gone.
“The lessons from history – from Hiroshima to the near-miss in 1983 – have never been more vital. The battle plans have been exposed and the stakes could not be higher.
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“The nuclear threat is no longer a Cold War relic. It is a terrifying, active component of 21st century warfare.
“The ultimate destruction of Ukraine is a possibility if Western resolve fails, and China’s pursuit of nuclear parity is the true long game shift, fundamentally altering the strategic balance that has kept the peace for decades.”