On February 28, 2025, Trump received Zelensky in the Oval Office of the White House.
Trump and Vance demeaningly criticized Zelensky. It would have been the only case, over the course of several decades, in which a sitting President publicly and openly attacked a visiting Head of State in the White House itself.
Putin had already stated his conditions for the conclusion of a Peace Agreement: the recognition of the occupied territories in Ukraine (with a few more additions in Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporijia), as well as Ukraine’s renunciation of membership in NATO, the existence of strong Armed Forces and guarantees of future respect for its own sovereignty, namely through the appointment of Security and Observation Forces like European ones.
In practice, it would be a “pure and hard” surrender of Ukraine.
Trump, at this stage of the process, never raised any objection to the conditions imposed by Putin.
However, the same Putin states that he needs at least until the end of 2025 to negotiate a consolidated peace, implying that he would need some time to occupy what he had not yet managed to occupy in Ukraine.
Trump then begins a negotiation process with Zelensky and European leaders in which he implies, between March and May, that he is unhappy with Putin’s positions and that he will, on a “beautiful day of sunshine and hope”, apply sanctions to Russia.
It establishes deadlines, at two months, at twelve days and, finally, at ten days.
But it is postponing the application of sanctions.
Afterwards, everything depended on a Summit with Putin in Alaska.
The Summit in Alaska took place on August 15th, resulting in nothing, other than a promise of a three-party Summit (involving Putin, Trump and Zelensky), a Summit that, shortly after, became a two-party Summit (without Zelensky’s uncomfortable presence).
Meanwhile, Trump was making adjustments to his political speech, conditioned as he was (and is) by American public opinion and his country’s political-military nomenclature.
Trump cannot ignore that there are sectors that are critical to his stance towards Ukraine, not only in the Democratic Party (where almost 100% of the social support base disagrees with him) but also in the Republican Party (where more than 25%-30% are with the Ukrainians), and it is also certain that, despite the changes that Trump has been making in the State apparatus, a relevant part of the political-military nomenclature is more on Zelensky’s side than on Putin’s side.
Thus, Trump altered his speech, trying to give the idea that, after all, he too supported Ukraine.
First, implying that the “Intelligence Services” cooperated with the invaded, although it was certain that he himself would always have difficulties in fully controlling this situation.
Second, saying that it could sell equipment to NATO – paid for by Europe –, equipment that would be intended to support Ukraine.
Until the possibility of a possible sending of tomahawk missiles and a meeting with Zelensky in October arose.
Nothing concrete resulted from the meeting, other than a possible Trump-Putin meeting that would take place, provocatively, for Ukraine and for Europeans, in Hungary.
Following the meeting with Zelensky and, certainly, under pressure from the political-military nomenclature, Trump stated “that a ceasefire was necessary in which each party would remain on the border of the respective controlled zone of territory”.
Russia did not accept, immediately explaining that it wanted more than that.
And soon some commentators appeared to agree with Putin, since the Russians, poor things, have a “victory dynamic” in their favor, naturally needing some more time to expand their conquests.
For these commentators, the ceasefire perhaps makes sense after the Russian conquest of Kiev.
Anyway, Trump canceled the Hungarian meeting there and, finally, the US applied sanctions on two Russian oil companies.
And Ukraine is enjoying less effective support from the USA and Putin is trying to put into practice his strategy of expanding advances on the ground until the end of the year.
So far, Trump has tried to give Putin time by feigning concern about Ukraine. But Ukraine’s future depends more on Europe and Zelensky than on Trump’s USA.
No more, no less…
Economist and university professor
Write without applying the new Spelling Agreement