CHINA’S ambition to seize its neighbour Taiwan is no secret, and there’s every sign an invasion could be imminent.
In this first episode of Superpowers Exposed, defence analyst Simon Diggins reveals how the tiny island is in fact the portal to China’s grander plans for “world domination”.
Diggins explains that President Xi Jinping’s long-term scheme extends far beyond Taiwan, and that he plans to use the island as a launchpad for global influence.
But the world – especially rival superpower the United States – will not sit idly by as China makes its first decisive move.
Watch the latest episode of Superpowers Exposed here
‘Never again’
China’s current fixation with global power is rooted in the so-called “Century of Humiliation”, Diggins says.
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After thousands of years as the “centre of the world”, China’s crown was pinched by Britain in the mid-1800s, when Britain forced the empire to open its ports and hand over Hong Kong.
It continued to struggle on the world stage as other powers, including Portugal and Japan, bit off chunks of China’s vast territory.
China was engulfed by a brutal civil war between the government of the Republic of China, ruling at the time, and the Chinese Communist Party – who eventually took power in 1949 under Chairman Mao.
The Republic of China’s forces retreated to Taiwan – where they have remained ever since.
Mao’s ideal of a socialist state collapsed and failed over the 1960s and 70s, and gave way to the model of capitalism with tight state control, which reigns today.
Now that China has re-established its strength, it is determined to hold onto it.
Diggins says: “That never again mentality, which had been born from a century of humiliation, still drives China today.
“And that’s exactly why Taiwan matters so much. It represents the last remaining link, the final reminder of the humiliation that China vowed to erase.”
Personal, political and lucrative
Reunification with Taiwan has been a policy ever since the civil war, and Xi Jinping has placed it at the centre of his vision for the country.
Diggins says: “On both sides, both Mao’s communists and Chiang Kai-shek’s nationalists saw one China and not two.
“For Beijing, taking Taiwan isn’t expansion, it’s unfinished business. It’s the final step in China’s national transformation and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”
The Communist Party also believes Taiwan is a cause that can unify its own members, and retaking it would justify its iron-fist approach to ruling the country.
Diggins says: “Taking Taiwan isn’t just territorial, it’s symbolic, it’s political and it’s also deeply personal.”
And there is another reason China can’t let Taiwan go: cold, hard cash.
Diggins says: “The world runs on semiconductors and through this company, TSMC, Taiwan produces over 90 per cent of the world’s most advanced chips.”
Gaining control of Taiwan would mean “instant control” of the £1.5trillion – a tantalising prospect for the Communist Party.
Taiwan is just the ‘opening move’
China has been studying how the British Empire was able to grasp so much of the globe and is taking inspiration, Diggins says.
He explains: “The lesson China has taken away from Britain is to control the trade choke points, and then you control the world.
“Beijing is following the same basic pattern. Trade, trade routes, bases, influence in the countries it’s trading with, and ultimately, control.
“Some call it a new form of Chinese colonialism”.
While Taiwan might seem small-fry in the context of global domination – it is actually vital to the whole vision.
“Taiwan is the opening move,” Diggins says, “and to understand why, you to have to look at a map”.
“Taiwan is located in the first island chain and is in many respects the pivot in that chain.
“To its north is the Yellow Sea and to its south is the South China Sea.
“As it currently sits, it could be used as a point of control, stopping China being able to expand beyond the first island chain.
“However, in Chinese hands, it then gives them direct access to the Western Pacific.”
At 72, Xi’s days are numbered, and China’s population is projected to halve by 2100 – meaning that China must play that opening move soon.
Diggins says: “President Xi has given orders to his armed forces that they are to be ready to take Taiwan by 2027.”
China has been ramping up military posturing and training exercises, so that Taiwan is in no doubt it faces a credible and imminent threat.
The Chinese have even built a mock-up of government buildings in Taiwanese capital Tapei, so they can practice overpowering them.
But how will it go down, if and when China moves in?
WW3 flashpoint
China’s army massively outnumbers Taiwan’s – but the island isn’t going down without a fight.
Diggins says: “Taiwan is well aware of the threat and is working to strengthen its defences.”
The island’s military is adopting a “porcupine” defence strategy, which seeks to make an invasion too gruelling and costly for China to ever attempt it.
But the reality is that, without any support, Taiwan would be overpowered relatively easily.
China boasts an army of over two million, dwarfing Taiwan’s 215,000.
However, Diggins insists that the other great superpower of our times, the United States, is not going to “sit by and watch” as China takes its first steps towards “a new world empire”.
He says that China’s ambitions are “creating what could be the biggest World War III flashpoint of our time”.
The US opposed an invasion by force of Taiwan, and even supplies the government there with weapons.
However, its official stance on whether it would intervene in the case of a Chinese invasion remains uncertain – and the decision would fall on the President at the time.
If there US were to directly involve itself against China, it would tee up an epic showdown between the world’s largest and the world’s most expensive armies.
As a staunch ally of the US, the UK would possibly also be drawn into conflict.
Diggins concludes: “The real issue is, will the West actually confront China or keep doing business as usual?
“In this series, we’re going to look at what each country’s wildcard is, a unique advantage that shapes its power.
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“For China, it’s not just the growing military might, it’s the power of influence and commerce.
“Through trade, technology and global supply chains, Beijing could win the power game without firing a single shot.”