Before the start of hostilities over trade tariffs by the United States and its president Donald Trump, the world economy was growing 3.3%, a value that can be considered expansive, indicates the IMF. Many economists consider growth of 3% or less to be a bad sign when it comes to the global economy.
However, in the new study on the global economic panorama, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that the path this year and next will be one of cooling again, with global growth once again approaching 3%, a figure that is little satisfactory, the IMF noted this Tuesday.
For the Fund, the global economy “is adjusting to a scenario reshaped by new political measures”, the most prominent case being the very high US tariffs and the trade war environment and some reversal in globalization.
“Some extreme measures of higher tariffs have been eased, thanks to subsequent agreements and resets, but the overall environment remains volatile, and the temporary factors that supported activity in the first half of 2025 — such as anticipated decisions [caso das exportações] — are disappearing”, warns the IMF.
Thus, the global growth projections of this new World Economic Outlook are “revised upwards in relation to the April 2025 WEO, but continue to mark a downward revision in relation to forecasts prior to the policy change”, that is, they are worse than estimated a year ago, in October 2024.
The document highlights that “global growth is expected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with advanced economies growing at around 1.5% and emerging and developing countries just above 4%”.
“Inflation is expected to continue to fall globally, although with variations between countries: above the target in the United States — with risks tilted upwards — and moderate elsewhere”, he adds.
But, in general, in this panorama predicted by the IMF, the negative risks prevail over the more positive aspects. “Prolonged uncertainty, more protectionism and labor supply shocks” could further reduce growth.
Furthermore, “budgetary vulnerabilities [de alguns governos, veja-se o caso atual de França]potential corrections in financial markets and the erosion of institutions could threaten stability”, concludes the IMF.