“I think they are weak,” he said. Donald Trump of European leaders in a recent interview. “I don’t think they know what to do. Europe doesn’t know what to do“says the president of the United States.
The heads of State and Government of the 27 are risking their credibility this Thursday in a high voltage summit marked by the pulse of Trump, who has put the EU in the target of his controversial National Security Strategy.
There are two key fronts on the table: economic and military support to Ukrainea debate in which Pedro Sanchez plays a secondary role; and the agreement with Mercosur as a commercial alternative to the US and China, of which the President of the Government is one of its main supporters.
A failure would mean leave kyiv without the financial lifeline that it needs to resist Russian aggression and pressure from Trump to accept territorial concessions. Also would definitely bury the pact with Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, which has taken 25 years of negotiation.
“This week’s European Council is about facing the reality of the moment. The reality of a world that has become dangerous and transactional. A world of wars. A world of predators“, warned the president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyenin a speech in the European Parliament.
“The reality of this world means that we Europeans must take on our own defense. And we must depend on ourselves (…) This is the moment of the independence of Europe“Von der Leyen proclaimed.
The great paradox is that the key to success or failure of the summit is the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, both in the case of Ukraine and in that of Mercosur. Despite her ideological harmony with Trump, Meloni has so far been pragmatic on the European scene and firm in defending Ukraine.
But the situation could change in the coming hours. Meloni has begun to approach countries that question the sending to Ukraine of Russian funds frozen in the EU, led by Belgiumand also those who seek to block the agreement with Mercosur, led by France.
“We want to clarify the risks associated with the use of liquidity generated by frozen Russian assets, in particular those related to reputation, retaliatory measures or those linked to new burdens on national budgets,” Meloni said about the ‘reparations loan’ for Ukraine.
Ukraine
Resorting to an emergency procedure to circumvent Hungary’s veto, the EU approved last Friday freeze the 210 billion euros in perpetuity of funds from the Central Bank of Russia tied up in European territory since the outbreak of the war. Until now, the blockade had to be renewed every 6 months.
Brussels now intends to send this money to Ukraine in the form of a ‘repair loan‘, which would have an initial endowment of 90,000 euros for the years 2026-2027. The Government of Volodímir Zelenskiwho is attending the summit in person, would only have to return the money if Russia compensates him for the damage caused during the war.
Belgium supported the indefinite freezing of the Bank of Russia’s assets, but published a statement specifying that this vote does not mean that it accepts the ‘reparations loan’.
In fact, his prime minister, Bart de Wevermaintains its rejection of this initiative because it is afraid of becoming the main target of the Kremlin’s retaliation, since the majority of the frozen Russian funds (185 billion) are in the company Euroclear, based in Brussels.
But the big news is that Italy joined the Belgian declaration, along with Bulgaria and Malta. Belgium insists that the ‘reparations loan’ amounts to confiscating Russian funds, an unprecedented measure with uncertain consequences. And defends the other possible alternative, issue joint European debt with the community budget as collateral.
The rest of the heads of State and Government—with the well-known exceptions of Hungary, Slovakia and now also Slovenia— they continue to defend that the best alternative is to use the frozen Russian funds and they still hope to convince Belgium (and also Italy).
The Commission has designed a system that distributes risks proportionally among the Member States, but De Wever considers it still insufficient. Belgium continues to request unlimited guarantees, available in full and from day one. While other countries are willing to assuage Belgian concerns, they say it will be impossible for them to approve unlimited guarantees.
The president of the European Council, Antonio Costahas warned that the summit will be prolonged as long as necessary until a white smoke is achieved.
“We are not pawns of the superpowers. We must firmly defend our interests and values. “I am convinced that we can achieve it,” says the German chancellor. Friedrich Merzone of the main drivers of both the sending of frozen Russian funds to Ukraine and the agreement with Mercosur.
Mercosur
Although it does not officially appear on the agenda of the European Council, all the sources consulted expect that the trade pact with Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay will be addressed this Thursday. Von der Leyen’s objective is to travel to Brasilia to sign the agreement this Saturday, December 20but first it needs the approval of the Member States.
Over the weekend, the French Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornuasked to postpone the signing to 2026. Emmanuel Macron It has always opposed the pact with Mercosur to protect its meat industry, but to achieve a blocking minority it needs the support of Meloni, who until today had maintained a calculated ambiguity.
However, the Italian prime minister now seems to be leaning towards supporting Macron. “Signing the agreement in the coming days, as has been suggested, is premature“he said this Wednesday. Brussels still hopes to be able to convince Meloni to change his mind, although he complains that he has never specified what he wants.
“If we don’t do it now, Brazil will not close this agreement while I am president“, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva warned this Wednesday. “If they say no, we will be tough with them from now on. We have already given in everything that diplomacy could grant,” he concluded.
“We will not exist on the world stage if we are not a commercial powerif we are not able to build a network of trade agreements everywhere: with India, with Indonesia, with Thailand,” says the president of the European Council.
“I started in the East, but I will reach Mercosur. Because, in effect, if we don’t do it, we will be left alone in the world. And it is not enough to have academic debates to say that we cannot be crushed between the United States and China“warns Costa.