Since the beginning of 2025, in an environment of geopolitical instability and forecasts of falling interest rates, the appreciation of gold has stood out in financial markets, around 51% ytd. One of the main reasons was the devaluation of the dollar against other currencies, 10% against the euro for example. Gold is known for being considered a store of value, a safe haven asset and a protection against periods of inflation and currency debasement. After comments from some important investors (Ray Dalio, David Einhorn and John Paulson) reinforcing the idea of gold as an asset of growing importance in portfolios, the metal gained new momentum in appreciation and focus from traders.
Strong investor demand was created for funds (ETFs) that attracted significant flows in 2025. Data from the World Gold Council indicated record quarters in terms of net inflows into ETFs, especially from North America and Asia. Until August, the purchase of gold ETFs had a volume of USD 44 billion. The previous record was in 2020, totaling USD 49 billion for the year. A situation that contrasts with the years 2021 to 2024 in which gold ETFs showed net outflows. Central banks remained net buyers of gold in 2025, bolstering reserves and reducing exposure to the dollar. In the period 2010-2021 the annual average of net purchases by central banks was around 400-500 tonnes per year. As of 2022, this figure has increased to around 1000-1100 tons per year. This demand is structural and not sensitive to price, being a factor in supporting market values.
Given the opportunity, Excellent Capital Investments, in addition to trading in the forex market, began implementing systematic intraday gold trading to take advantage of the daily volatility and market inefficiencies created. The entry of institutional and retail investors increases the amplitude of movements in the gold price by creating strong inflows and the consequent management of positions. Through proprietary models that involve pattern recognition using artificial intelligence and subsequent use of automatic bots, ECI has been trading successfully. The gold market is highly reactive to macro events: US Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions, employment data, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and inflation data (CPI, PCE), employment reports, and changes in Treasury bond yields. As gold is priced in dollars, there is an inverse correlation between the two. Gold has relatively high intraday volatility, with frequent movements of 1% to 2% in a matter of hours.
In October 2025, gold underwent a sharp correction after an impressive rally. From the historical high above USD 4,381/oz, the price retreated to levels close to or below US$ 4,000/oz, losing approximately 8% in a week at times. The causes cited for this correction include: profit taking, strengthening of the dollar and expectations of tighter monetary policies, easing of trade tensions (US–China), and closing of leveraged speculative positions.